Written by U.S. and European ambassadors to the United Nations Nikki Haley and Vuk Jeremic, as well as a former senior State Department official who knew Pompeo before he became Secretary of State, here are some of the potential effects of Sam in U.S. foreign policy beyond the 2020 Presidential elections:
The relief event from the Iranian regime is over, and the uncertainty over Iran’s future is now likely to increase. For the past two years, we have heard Iran will now enter a new cycle of negotiations (with the United States).
Even as the United States marked its 30th anniversary of the Embassy takeover in 1979, following a decree that the U.S. Department of State register all Iranian property as state property (as of August 2009), all those negotiations that followed were just “phase one.” Phase two, the negotiations between Iran and the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany, is only about to begin, so the United States and Iran have at least nine months to prepare themselves.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley (L) and former U.S. Secretary of State and World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz (C) address the 73rd session of the General Assembly at United Nations headquarters in New York, September 24, 2018. U.S. / REUTERS A grab from video taken at the opening session of the 73rd Session of the United Nations General Assembly. U.S. – UN Photo by Yoon S. Byun
From Iran’s perspective, the regime now has a clear rearguard position to defend: It must prove that it is still committed to negotiations or else face the increasing possibility of a nuclear military option by the United States.
By building sanctions up until they bite hard, and backing those sanctions up with a military option, the United States risks taking a dangerous gamble in the short term. This bet will pay off over the long term, however, by putting the regime on the defensive and giving it an incentive to take advantage of the rich opportunity to strengthen its internal, economic and foreign networks.
But what will come out of it? We should remember, however, that Khamenei is not Osama bin Laden. And even if sanctions and a possible military threat put enormous pressure on Iran and its economy, there is still likely to be an increased consumption of U.S. dollars and oil.