Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Most readers predicted Justin Trudeau’s Liberals would win Canada’s elections, but surprisingly it didn’t happen

Trudeau’s Liberals had been expected to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

Leading up to Canada’s parliamentary elections, we asked readers to predict who would win, based on their readership. We received over a thousand responses, and 93 percent of you chose the Liberals. The party received the most responses, but fewer than 20 readers predicted that they would end up without a majority, and thus without the power to form a new government.

Will Canadians elect a minority government?

We were among those surprised.

On Friday, after Canada’s election, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau admitted his party had fallen short of the numbers needed to take the majority in Parliament, but offered a few guarantees: his party would remain in power, Canadians will have a strong government after the election, and they will become friends with whoever becomes the next prime minister.

Trudeau, leader of the centre-left Liberal Party, also called an election after the electoral system failed to produce a majority government. He said that he hoped a new, minority government would be possible that would allow the party to work with the other parties to find middle ground.

Trudeau added that the parties of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who led the right-wing Conservatives to victory, were “one Parliament too far.”

“I take this responsibility seriously, as I believe that the voters’ choice last time has left an important gap in Canadian politics,” he said.

Trudeau said a new Liberal government will “work hard to build a Canada in which all Canadian children and young people are able to benefit from a thriving middle class and a growing economy,” saying that Canadians had come together in support of “basic Canadian values” in a deeply polarized election that featured the country’s toughest election campaign in 60 years.

“Let me be clear: We will form a strong, strong minority government,” he said.

Trudeau cited the need to legalize cannabis, reform the Senate, and defend the country’s environment. He added that his government will “strengthen our relationships with our allies” and take a “bold step” to confront the threat of climate change.

Trudeau’s Liberals had been expected to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

The Liberal Party of Canada won 166 seats after the election, according to The Huffington Post. That was 46 more than its current parliamentary limit. It didn’t quite match the 177 seats it would have won in the last election, but was enough to ensure that the Liberals, who had ruled for two consecutive terms, would remain in power, they said.

The Conservatives and the New Democratic Party came close to being able to form a government as well. According to The Canadian Press, the two parties came within 44 seats of forming a coalition government that would have placed them in power. The NDP won 61 seats, but had crossed the 7% threshold to bring a countrywide electoral pact with the Conservatives, who had 80 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois, which had nine.

The Conservatives also were close to forming a government. According to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a Conservative government got into power with the help of the Bloc Quebecois, and had 65 seats. Their election win was less than the 76 seats expected, but enough to rule as a coalition government with the help of the New Democrats.

Other predictions

You didn’t get nearly as many political predictions from Washingtonian readers.

Americans selected the Democrats.

In an average of your votes, 99 percent of readers picked the Democrats to win.

More than one hundred readers guessed the Conservatives would win the election.

One reader gave the Bloc Quebecois and New Democrats the same vote total of 59.

Only a few readers predicted a Liberal majority, although one reader won 41 out of 46 votes on the question.

The Liberals won.

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